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A green transition powered by large-scale, renewable energy is under way in northern Sweden, featuring innovations in fossil-free mining, green steel production, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing. These new initiatives are the most ambitious in decades, envisioned by companies and politicians as a bright, green future for a region haunted by a history of population and economic decline. However, to meet the demands of growing green industries, the north will have to attract an additional 100,000 residents and increase its renewable energy production thirteen-fold. Building on interview data with key stakeholders in Norrbotten and V¨asterbotten, Sweden’s two northernmost counties, this article investigates the drivers behind this green growth and examines the challenges that municipalities and industries will face in achieving it. In the long term, can the demands of a growing green economy be met while delivering justice to the rural and Indigenous S´ami populations of the region who have alternative visions for land use in the north? To answer this question, this article lays out a framework that complements existing approaches to justice in green transitions, identifying potential incongruences between growth and justice. This framework emphasizes the need to take into account four factors – order, timescale, agendas, and actors – which ultimately shape the priorities, possibilities, and justice of green transformation outcomes. 

Abstract In Sweden’s Norrbotten County, a “green transition” driven by market demand and new normative structures is underway, creating a regional mega-project designed to put Sweden at the forefront of emerging green industries. These industries, such as carbon-neutral steel fabrication, battery production, and data center hosting, all require large amounts of energy, land, and minerals. This paper applies the regional environmental governance framework to Arctic data to examine which stakeholders have the capacity to impose their agenda on the Arctic environment and the points of conflict and collaboration during this period of accelerated growth. The paper tests the assumption that regional governance accommodates a plurality of interests. A case study examining Norrbotten County’s industrial mega-project centered around Luleå, Sweden, identifies a dominant coalition uniting government and industry that supports norms seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in this region. However, the existing regional governance model does a poor job of integrating the local Indigenous Sámi preferences for land use. At the core of the difference between actors advancing the green economy and the local Sámi reindeer herders are divergent conceptions of nature and sustainability.